Valencia vs Panathinaikos – Preview & Prediction: Valencia will host Panathinaikosa in the EuroLeague Quarterfinals Game 5.
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Valencia vs Panathinaikos Preview
When Panathinaikos left Roig Arena on April 30 with a 2-0 lead in the series, probably not even the most loyal and optimistic Valencia fans believed they would watch another EuroLeague quarterfinal game in their own arena this season. And yet, it happened. Valencia once again showed why they dominated the regular season and they outplayed Panathinaikos twice in OAKA within three days to force a Game 5 that will determine the final participant at the Final Four. Olympiacos, Real Madrid, and Fenerbahce are already there, while the winner of this series will face Los Blancos in the semifinals. Not only did Pedro Martinez’s team record two wins in the Greek capital last week, but they did it in relatively comfortable fashion. In both games, they held at least a nine-point advantage with a few minutes left in the fourth quarter, and Panathinaikos only managed to make the final scorelines look much more respectable than the actual balance of power on the court. The absolute hero for his team in Game 4 was Jean Montero, who generally delivered one of the best EuroLeague playoff performances of the last decade. He scored 29 points with spectacular shooting percentages from the field, while also adding seven rebounds and seven assists. Although he was selected to the All-EuroLeague First Team, which already reflected the kind of season he had, Montero gained complete affirmation in this series and is now viewed as one of the best basketball players in European basketball today.
Not only is Montero a dominant scorer, but he is also capable of creating for the entire team and finding teammates in excellent positions to score. Even though he is only 22 years old, he possesses remarkable maturity and it is rare to see him make the wrong decision in crucial moments. A lot of credit for all of this also belongs to coach Martinez, who assembled a phenomenal group of players and integrated them perfectly into his recognizable system. Only Paris played at a faster pace than Valencia this EuroLeague season, while the Taronges were also the second-best defense in the competition. There is no team as deadly in transition on both ends of the floor. Valencia scores a huge number of baskets within the first eight seconds of possessions and constantly creates desired mismatches and open three-point shots in transition, but they also have phenomenal defensive transition and prevent opponents from doing the same things they themselves do with the ball. Alongside Montero, several other players have stepped into major roles this season. Brancou Badio established himself as the second offensive option and someone capable of scoring from all areas of the floor. Darius Thompson got his career back on track after a far from impressive campaign with Anadolu Efes, while Omari Moore also had brilliant moments during the first two months of the new season. Kameron Taylor turned out to be one of the best signings in the entire EuroLeague this season, while big men such as Matt Costello, Jaime Pradilla, Braxton Key, Nate Reuvers, and Neal Sako provide versatility in the paint and multiple options under the basket. Aside from Sako, all of them are threats from beyond the arc.
If perhaps there was not a single Valencia fan who believed this series would reach a Game 5 after the 0-2 deficit, then what should be said about the Panathinaikos fans who had already booked their Final Four tickets after their team’s second win on Spanish soil? However, Ergin Ataman’s team disappointed once again this season and now has a chance to enter European basketball history as only the second team ever eliminated after leading 2-0 following the first two games. The only other example was Partizan in the 2022/2023 season against Real Madrid, but it must be remembered that Partizan lost several suspended players for Games 3 and 4. Considering that Panathinaikos has the biggest budget in the history of European basketball this season, an elimination in the quarterfinals after opening the series with two road wins would be an unprecedented embarrassment and a huge blow to the legacy not only of coach Ataman, but also many players on this roster. Because of all that, a major reaction from the Greens is expected on Wednesday, but the question remains whether they have enough quality to outplay Valencia once again on their home floor. The individual talent is certainly there because this roster is built around several EuroLeague superstars, but at no point have they looked like a cohesive team capable of steamrolling everyone in front of them. Their biggest wins this season mostly came when they made impossible three-point shots in bunches, just like in Game 2 of this quarterfinal series. And if another shooting night like that does not happen, it will be very difficult for them to win this decisive game.
Cedi Osman was by far the best individual performer for Panathinaikos in Game 4 with 26 points, while Kendrick Nunn followed him with 19 points. Nigel Hayes-Davis was the only other player in double figures with 12 points. However, almost all of them mainly score through isolation basketball and very few players are able to consistently create open perimeter shots. That has ultimately been Panathinaikos’ biggest problem this season. No guard besides Nunn consistently creates advantages offensively and that looks like an unsolvable issue. Jerian Grant is having his weakest season in a Panathinaikos jersey, opponents constantly go under screens against T.J. Shorts and leave him space for perimeter shots while preventing him from creating for teammates, while Kostas Sloukas is sidelined with an injury. Coach Ataman also tried to implement Vassilis Toliopoulos in Game 4, but that experiment was not particularly successful. At the end of the day, everything comes down to whether Nunn can explode offensively, and he has not been aggressive enough in this series. The fact he has attempted only five free throws in four quarterfinal games is unbelievable. All five came in Roig Arena. Without an aggressive Nunn attacking the rim in isolation situations and forcing defenses to collapse, Panathinaikos has no chance. Because the three-point percentages of players like Juancho Hernangomez, Nikos Rogkavopoulos, and the already mentioned Osman and Hayes-Davis depend heavily on the work done by the ball handlers. And when that is missing, Osman and Hayes-Davis are usually forced into taking difficult shots, which is exactly what brought Panathinaikos into the situation they currently find themselves in. Mathias Lessort is having a solid series, but help from teammates on the boards is often lacking.
Claim Now Valencia vs Panathinaikos H2H
The series is tied 2-2 and whoever wins Wednesday’s game will advance to the EuroLeague Final Four. Valencia also defeated Panathinaikos twice during the regular season.
Injuries and Suspensions
Braxton Key and Josep Puerto are questionable for Valencia. Kostas Sloukas is injured for Panathinaikos.
Where to Watch Valencia vs Panathinaikos?
Valencia vs Panathinaikos Best Betting Tip and Prediction
Panathinaikos won Game 2 thanks to unbelievable three-point shooting. One impossible Osman banked three-pointer even sent the game into overtime where the Greek side ultimately prevailed. Even Game 1 ended in a dramatic finish despite Valencia missing an enormous number of open perimeter shots. Once those circumstances disappeared in Games 3 and 4 in Athens, we saw the exact same outcome as during the regular season. And that outcome suggests Valencia is simply the better team than Panathinaikos this season. We believe the better team will ultimately punch its ticket to the Final Four.
Tip-off Time: Wednesday, 13.05.2026, 21:00 CET
Prediction: Valencia to win
Odds: 1.78
Stake: 2 Units
Sportsbook: 22Bet
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