The speculation surrounding LeBron James’ future may finally have a frontrunner.
After the four-time NBA champion officially became a free agent by informing the Los Angeles Lakers on June 30 that he would not return for the upcoming season, several contenders quickly emerged as possible destinations. However, longtime NBA analyst Bill Simmons now believes the race is already over.
Speaking about James’ future, Simmons delivered a statement that has immediately fueled expectations of one of the biggest homecomings in NBA history.
“The Cleveland thing is done.”
Bill Simmons says LeBron James is signing with the Cavs
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) July 10, 2026
“The Cleveland thing is done.” 👀 pic.twitter.com/7h6EGEqYJh
Cleveland Cavaliers emerge as overwhelming favorites
Although LeBron has not publicly revealed where he intends to continue his career, Simmons’ comments have only strengthened the belief that a return to the Cleveland Cavaliers is becoming increasingly likely.
That sentiment is also reflected by sportsbooks, which currently list Cleveland as the overwhelming favorite to sign James.
According to Polymarket, the Cavaliers hold a 63% implied probability of landing the NBA legend.
The remaining contenders trail significantly behind:
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 63%
- Miami Heat – 17%
- Golden State Warriors – 14%
- Philadelphia 76ers – 6%
If Simmons’ information proves accurate, LeBron would be set for his third stint with the franchise where his legendary NBA journey began.
Could LeBron return home once again?
A move back to Cleveland would bring James full circle.
The Cavaliers selected him with the first overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, launching one of the greatest careers basketball has ever seen.
He spent his first seven NBA seasons in Cleveland before joining the Miami Heat in 2010. After winning two championships in South Beach, he returned to the Cavaliers in 2014 and delivered the most iconic moment in franchise history by leading Cleveland to its first NBA championship in 2016, completing a historic comeback from a 3-1 deficit against the Golden State Warriors.
James then joined the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018, where he spent the last eight seasons and captured another NBA championship in 2020.
JUST IN: The Cavaliers are pulling away from other teams as clear favorites to land LeBron James, per Polymarket.
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) July 10, 2026
Cavs: 63%
Heat: 17%
Warriors: 14%
76ers: 6% pic.twitter.com/NX6KRq9q2U
LeBron remains one of the NBA’s biggest stars
Despite entering the later stages of his career, James continues to perform at a high level.
Last season, he appeared in 60 games, averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game.
While those numbers were below his remarkable career averages of 26.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists, the 41-year-old remains one of the league’s most impactful players.
Over the course of his career, James has won four NBA championships:
- Miami Heat – 2012, 2013
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 2016
- Los Angeles Lakers – 2020
All eyes now on LeBron’s decision
For now, LeBron James remains one of the biggest names available on the market, but Bill Simmons’ latest comments have significantly intensified speculation that the NBA icon is preparing for another return to Cleveland.
If that prediction becomes reality, it would mark one of the most significant free-agent moves in recent NBA history and reunite the Cavaliers with the greatest player in franchise history.
