Iran vs Jordan – Preview & Prediction (Sep. 13, 2026)

Under the guidance of their foreign Greek head coach Sotirios Manolopoulos, Iran came to the Asian Games without a couple of star players like Mohammed Amini and Sina Vahedi, but they are still boasting a very strong and balanced lineup that is definitely capable of fighting for a medal. They suffered a huge shock upset loss in their opener a few days ago against Qatar as they only managed to score a measly 53 points and lost by six points. However, Iran recovered well with a huge victory over a strong Chinese Taipei today. They were losing in the second half by almost ten points, but as always showed great resilience and grit that is the trademark of their team. They came back and won the game 72:69 in a dramatic ending, thus preserving their hopes of progressing into the knockouts as they now stand at 1-1 W-L record – the same record that Chinese Taipei and Jordan possess. With three teams with an identical W-L record, this group is very crowded and everything is open ahead of the final round. Iran will have a difficult time this Sunday against a Jordan team with two imports, but even if they lose against the best team in the group on paper, they will most likely still progress.

This is a derby clash between two very solid teams in terms of Asian basketball. In the FIBA World Cup qualifiers, Jordan proved they can beat Iran with their superior class and naturalized imports, but overall, the Iranian team has better cohesion, defense and chemistry. Despite this, we would open Jordan as slight favourites even with their main center getting ruled out for this tournament after suffering an injury in the opener against Chinese Taipei.

Following a shock opening loss at the hands of Chinese Taipei, Jordan recovered well in the second round with a routine victory over Qatar. They played that match without their main center and one of their best domestic players with experience from Europe, Ahmad Al Dwairi, who will no longer feature in the Asian Games and beyond after tearing his ACL. This is a big blow for Jordan´s aspirations, but with two quality imports like Dar Tucker and Perrin Bufford, they still have to be considered as one of the tournament favourites. Besides their imports, Jordan also have solid quality with domestic players like Freddy Ibrahim and Abdullah Olajuwon, so it comes as no surprise they easily masked the absence of Al Dwairi against Qatar. With a win today, Jordan or Iran would mathematically secure progression and wouldn´t have to gamble with the placement of the third-ranked teams, so this match is vital for both teams. Iran´s best chance against the high-octane offense of Jordan with two imports is to slow the game down and make it an ugly contest, something similar when Iran beat Jordan in the World Cup qualifiers two months ago.

On paper, Jordan are clearly more talented, but Iran are an experienced side that knows how to manage and win these kinds of games. Jordan should be the favourites, but we think it will be extremely tight until the very end as one to two possessions should decide the outcome.