Japan vs South Korea – Preview & Prediction (Sep. 13, 2026)

Despite playing with their B team and their second-choice naturalized player Alex Kirk, Japan are at a very high level in this tournament after dismantling Indonesia in the opener by 45 points and then routinely taking down Saudi Arabia 86:80. They were leading by a big margin at halftime versus the Saudis, but couldn´t break away in the second half as Saudi Arabia narrowed the gap. Japan still won and they are already through to the knockout stages. However, today´s massive derby clash with South Korea is vital for them because it will show them how they currently fare against one of the main title favourites. With a B team without all of their main stars, we were expecting Japan to struggle, even at home, but they have proven everyone wrong as they are playing solid basketball. They are also playing for pride because this tournament is a big chance for their second stringers to prove themselves at a high level. Today, even with the fans behind them, we doubt they can upset and take down a very formidable Korean side that is dominating and is looking like championship material. It should be an uphill battle for the Japanese team, that has enough to avoid a double-digit defeat, but they should still lose routinely.

Korean players are simply at a higher level, but Japan will try to mask the difference in class through strong and gritty defense along with halfcourt team basketball. It will be interesting as this is one of the biggest games of the tournament so far and a true derby clash. Overall, Korea are the better side and should be able to subdue the B team of Japan.

During the preparation period, South Korea dismantled the Philippines twice at home in two friendlies. Prior to that, they carved out a crucial victory in the World Cup qualifiers as they took down Saudi Arabia at home. Saudi Arabia were also their first victim in these Asian Games with South Korea cruising to a win against the Saudis a couple of days ago 82:66. Against Indonesia in their second game, they were a bit sluggish in the first half but stepped up massively and completely demolished Indonesia 102:48. With their play so far and the margins of their victories, they have to be considered as one of the main favourites led by their main stalwart Lee Hyunjung, who will be playing for the Portland Trailblazers. Today, their true quality will be shown in a very demanding matchup against a proud Japanese team, but Korea simply possess too many offensive weapons and should be able to overwhelm Japan. When the bookmakers open the odds, we are expecting a routine advantage for South Korea whose team should make a decisive run sometimes in the second half to ice this match.

Koreans are simply better. They are not a class above the Japanese B selection but are clearly the superior team as Korea are playing with virtually their best lineup with a couple of exceptions. On the other hand, Japan are relying on their second-choice players and we think they will get exposed today.