Virtus vs Paris: Analysis and Prediction – Feb. 07, 2025

Virtus lost their previous game against Partizan on their home court, 81-71, in Round 25 of the EuroLeague, bringing their record to 7-18 in the elite competition. The team’s top scorers were Tornike Shengelia with 16 points and Isaia Cordinier with 13 points, but their efforts were not enough to put up a stronger fight.

Virtus has been experiencing significant ups and downs since the start of the season. They had a poor beginning, failing to secure a single EuroLeague win until Round 5, when they surprisingly defeated Partizan. However, that victory did not mark a turning point, as the team continued to struggle. Expectations were higher, especially because their roster remained largely unchanged from the previous season, with the only major addition being Will Clyburn—a recognized EuroLeague superstar brought in to elevate Virtus to a higher level. Not only did that not happen, but Luca Banchi’s team also suffered losses to Alba Berlin at home. That defeat led the Italian coach to step down, after which Dusko Ivanovic took over. The former Baskonia coach, with vast EuroLeague experience, had a strong start, as is often the case, but injuries soon disrupted the team’s progress. The absences of Clyburn and Ante Zizic have prevented Virtus from reaching their full potential. Although Justin Holiday was added to the squad, it didn’t help them against a well-prepared Partizan in their last game. Virtus’ offensive struggles or Partizan’s defensive dominance—whichever way you look at it, scoring just 71 points at home is rarely enough to beat any team. Virtus had no answer for Partizan’s outstanding 11/18 three-point shooting, nor for their dominance on the boards. Any team that allows Partizan to control the rebounding battle is usually bound to lose, as that is one of the Serbian team’s main strengths. Rebounding was ultimately the key factor in Virtus’ defeat to Zeljko Obradovic’s squad.

In the upcoming match, Virtus must approach the game with toughness and aggression, avoiding a fast-paced contest against Paris. If they allow the game to turn into a run-and-gun battle, it could be disastrous for them. Paris thrives on playing at a high tempo with more possessions, which is how they typically break down their opponents’ resistance.

Paris lost their previous game against Olympiacos 90-73 on their home court, marking their 10th defeat in the EuroLeague. Their record now stands at 14-10 in the elite competition. The team’s top scorers were Nadir Hifi with 19 points and T.J. Shorts with 15 points, but much more was needed for them to be truly competitive.

Paris started the EuroLeague season as the biggest sensation and the most pleasant surprise. Their fast-paced style and unique in-game rotations were an insurmountable challenge for many teams, allowing them to string together 10 consecutive wins and reach an 11-2 record at one point. However, a decline in form was inevitable. It wouldn’t be realistic to assume that other teams weren’t analyzing and scouting Paris more effectively, which has limited their effectiveness for the past two months. This is no longer the same team that quickly built a 20-point lead against Olympiacos in Piraeus—it has become much harder for them to dominate. Their last game was the perfect example of this, as the roles were completely reversed. This time, Olympiacos was the team that jumped to a 20-point lead within the first seven minutes, forcing Paris to chase the entire game—a nearly impossible task. The home team was particularly helpless against Sasha Vezenkov, who had already scored 17 points midway through the first quarter, essentially deciding the game early on. The biggest issue for Paris is that they are no longer as strong defensively, which was the foundation of their success. Against Olympiacos, their small-ball lineup proved disastrous, as Moustapha Fall exploited double-teams by flawlessly distributing assists to open teammates, most often Giannoulis Larentzakis, who shined in the second quarter with 10 points. These are all aspects Paris needs to address if they want to remain competitive in the play-in race.

In the upcoming game, Paris must do everything possible to speed up the pace, as that is their only way to counter Virtus, a team that lacks the same offensive firepower and will try to slow the game down. The visitors cannot allow that to happen—they must impose their own tempo, which would give them the best chance to win.