Luka Doncic and his Dallas Mavericks are facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals of the NBA.
Luka Doncic did it! After playoff defeats against the Los Angeles Clippers in the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, he finally managed to beat the team from the “City of Angels” on the third attempt. It wasn’t easy, and the Slovenian star didn’t shine brightly, but this time he finally got the right support. Kyrie Irving reminded everyone of his championship days, and in moments when the Mavericks didn’t have solutions, he waved his magic wand and directed them toward success.
On the other hand, the Oklahoma City Thunder, led by this season’s Coach of the Year, Mark Daigneault, entered this playoffs as the winners of the Western Conference. If we look at the entire NBA, they are the second-youngest team, and such success is a real feat. Despite finishing first in the stacked West, everyone doubted them before the playoffs started. However, what’s most important is that they didn’t doubt themselves. They swept the New Orleans Pelicans 4-0, and if we look at all four games, only the first one was uncertain.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks – H2H
In the 21st century, these two teams have met in the playoffs three times. The Thunder have been more successful, winning two out of three series, but it’s worth noting that the Mavericks won the most important one. Dirk Nowitzki easily defeated the powerful trio of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook in the Western Conference finals with a 4-1 win on his way to his only title.
The following season, the Thunder players managed to get their revenge when they swept the Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs. They met again in the playoffs in 2016, where the team from Oklahoma once again handled the aging Nowitzki and his team easily, defeating them 4-1. Looking back in history, the Oklahoma City Thunder is the successor to the Seattle Supersonics, who played two series against the Mavericks in the 1980s, each team winning one series.
Regarding all their matchups, they have played a total of 174 games. Interestingly, the Thunder has a slight advantage, leading 90-84. This season, in the four games played, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the team have won three times.
This season head-to-head
- Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder 120:126
- Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder 146:111
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks 126:119
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks 135:86
Oklahoma City Thunder Strenghts and Weaknesses
- Strengths: The Thunder’s greatest advantage is definitely their cohesion and youthful energy. The team has been assembled piece by piece and seems to be on the right path to achieving something great in the future. They may have an edge because they easily advanced through the first round of the playoffs. They haven’t tired physically or mentally, and they enter the series against the Dallas Mavericks completely rested. Another thing that could work in their favor is their defensive rebounding. The Thunder are currently the second-best team in the league after the Boston Celtics when it comes to protecting their own basket.
- Weaknesses: One of the weaknesses of this team is their lack of experience. The oldest player in the rotation is Gilgeous-Alexander, at just 25 years old. Of course, there are players like Gordon Hayward and Kenrich Williams who are older, but their playing time in the playoffs is mostly measured in seconds. Additionally, a major problem in a longer series could be the bench. Apart from the starters, the rotation includes Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, and it’s questionable how much quality and potential for playoff basketball there is among them.
Dallas Mavericks Strenghts and Weaknesses
- Strengths: The biggest advantage the Mavericks have is definitely the duo of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. If we look at the games in the series against the Clippers, in four out of six games, the two of them combined for more than half of their team’s points. It’s clear they got exactly what they wanted from Irving when they took the risk and made the trade for him. Additionally, this season they signed Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, who complement the mentioned duo perfectly. Also, Dereck Lively is having an excellent rookie season and is a key defender for the team led by Jason Kidd from the bench.
- Weaknesses: The biggest problem for the Texas franchise is their defense. Looking at their defensive rating, the Mavericks allow 114.9 points per 100 possessions, which is only good enough for a modest 18th place in the league. The only team remaining in the competition that is worse than them defensively are the Indiana Pacers. The Mavericks’ bench is also a major concern, especially considering that Tim Hardaway Jr. is injured, and it’s uncertain if he’ll be able to help his teammates. Dante Exum had a great season, but he has struggled in the playoffs so far. In six games, he has only scored in single digits (9 points), which surely wasn’t what was expected.
X-Factor: Chet Holmgren
Both teams have players who could be popular “X factors.” One of them is definitely Chet Holmgren. The second pick from last year’s draft had a great season and alongside Victor Wembanyama, he showed the most among rookies this season.
Although he is in his second year in the NBA, Holmgren is considered a rookie as he missed the entire previous season due to injury. He has played in every game this season and has averaged 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds.
The tall center has shown this year that he has trouble with heavy centers like Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. The Mavericks don’t have such a center in their team, which could make things easier for Holmgren, especially on the defensive end of the court.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks: Three things to watch
- Defense against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – It’s a real question whom the Dallas Mavericks will send to defend one of the three MVP candidates in the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a fantastic season with 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game. In addition to impressive numbers, he has exceptional shooting percentages. He has greatly improved his three-point shooting and has much better percentages compared to the previous two seasons.
An additional problem for the team from Texas is that they don’t have a defensive specialist in their lineup. It’s assumed that Derrick Jones Jr. will be tasked with guarding him, given his enormous wingspan and excellent physical attributes, which might bother the Canadian national team representative to some extent. However, Jones Jr. isn’t a defensive specialist of that caliber, so the Mavericks will surely have to make some further adjustments. - Luka Doncic and shooting percentages – Luka Doncic has had a stellar season, leading the league in scoring with 33.9 points per game, which is 3.5 points more than Giannis Antetokounmpo, his closest competitor. Alongside Nikola Jokic and his rival in this round, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he is in the running for the MVP award. Despite being the top scorer for his team in the first round of the playoffs, it’s clear that there is a lot of room for improvement in Doncic’s game. He shot 62/143 from the field, which is just over 42%. Additionally, the former EuroLeague MVP is dealing with a knee injury, and it’s unclear how serious it is.
- Luguentz Dort vs Kyrie Irving – It’s clear how much experience Kyrie Irving brings with him. He hit one of the most important shots in recent NBA history and seems like an ideal partner for Luka Doncic. He played a great first round, averaging 26.5 points. However, the Oklahoma City Thunder have excellent perimeter defenders. Luguentz Dort is a real “hawk,” and opponents rarely get easy baskets around him. It’s assumed that he will be tasked with harassing Irving and Doncic on defense. Although the Thunder lack significant experience, they will undoubtedly have a huge desire to show why they finished the regular season in the first position.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction
Both teams enter this series with a lot of confidence. The young Oklahoma City team gained an extra dose of confidence from sweeping their first-round opponent. They realized they can compete with anyone in the playoffs and will have something to say until the end of this postseason.
On the other hand, the Mavericks have championship pedigree in the form of Irving. Additionally, they have a more experienced team, and successfully eliminating the Clippers on their third attempt will surely help them realize that the ultimate goal is within reach.
If Doncic finds his groove early and is complemented by Irving, it seems that the task will be very tough for the Thunder. The crucial thing for them is to defend their home court in the first two games, but the Mavericks showed against the Clippers that playing away from home is not a major obstacle for them, having secured two road wins.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in six