On Thursday and Friday, the games of the EuroBasket qualifiers were played, and it can already be stated who the big winners and losers are.
You could have read about the bad sides of the EuroBasket qualification system on our website, and some national teams have already felt it firsthand. Georgia suffered a shocking defeat to Denmark yesterday (75:69), and Aleksandar Dzikic‘s team has a lot of work ahead to qualify for EuroBasket. As one of the four hosts of the final tournament, Finland has already secured its spot, meaning the battle for the last ticket is likely between Georgia and Denmark, especially after Serbia smoothly started the qualifications.
Although outcomes of their games have no relevance for them, Finland will play a crucial role in Group G as their games against Denmark and Georgia will be extremely important for both teams.
Denmark hasn’t played in the EuroBasket since 1955, but after yesterday’s triumph, they have reason to be optimistic. Gabriel Lundberg didn’t have a perfect evening, but with 19 points, he was one of the main contributors to his team’s victory. It’s worth noting that Shavon Shields also holds citizenship of this country, and if the Danes have his assistance in the final stages of the qualifiers, things could turn in their favor.
Georgia will have to chase a -6 deficit against them in 12 months, but it’s more realistic that the decisive factor will be what both national teams do in their clashes against Serbia and Finland. Clearly, assuming Georgia wins the second encounter against Denmark, as otherwise, they are likely to finish at the bottom of the group.
Even though only one round has been played, another Scandinavian team has plenty of reasons for satisfaction. Sweden convincingly defeated Bulgaria by 84:70, and this accomplishment is even more significant considering they did it without the help of their two best players. Simon Birgander and Ludvig Hakanson have been sidelined for some time due to injuries, making this triumph even more noteworthy. Despite Bulgaria’s hopes that Cody Miller-McIntyre‘s assistance would improve their chances, it was not the case.
In the second game of Group D, Germany demolished Montenegro by 85:61. However, given the quality both teams possess, there’s a slim chance that either of them will suffer defeats in their road games in Bulgaria or Sweden. Nevertheless, Bulgaria will have to chase a -14 deficit when they face Sweden again, and that presents a challenging task. If the Scandinavian team maintains their advantage, they will qualify for EuroBasket for the first time in 12 years.
One of the most crucial games in the first round of qualifiers took place in Skopje, where Estonia justified their role as favorites by beating North Macedonia 74:69. A complicating factor for the hosts was that they were without Nenad Dimitrijevic for a significant part of the fourth quarter due to injury. In the other match in this group, Lithuania comfortably dealt with Poland at home (83:64).
Considering the quality of the Lithuanian team and the fact that Poland is already qualified as one of the EuroBasket hosts, it’s clear that the third team from this group will be either North Macedonia or Estonia. After this result, Aleksandar Joncevski‘s team faces a very tough task ahead.
In Group A, Slovenia and Israel lived up to expectations, securing wins against Ukraine and Portugal, demonstrating their superior quality at this moment. Based on the performances in the first round, it seems that the differences between Ukraine and Portugal are minimal. The outcome of their upcoming game in Riga will likely determine who takes the first step towards EuroBasket.
In Group B, Italy defeated Turkey in one of the first-round’s derbies. However, the more crucial development occurred in Reykjavik, where Iceland, led by Martin Hermannsson and Elvar Fridriksson, overcame Hungary (70:65) despite not showcasing their best performance. One of Iceland’s goals will be to “defend” the +5 lead in 12 months, while simultaneously attempting to surprise one of the group’s favorites in the meantime.
Turkey possesses significantly greater individual quality compared to Iceland and Hungary, but recent qualifiers have shown they are vulnerable. It won’t be a considerable surprise if this ends up being a three-way race to avoid the last position. Italians, on the other hand, stand several levels above all others in the group.
The least drama is expected in Group C, where after the first round, it can be concluded that Slovakia is already facing elimination. A 60:75 loss to Belgium in Bratislava has pushed them towards last place. As one of the hosts, Latvia is automatically qualified, and it’s hard to imagine Spain staying behind Slovakia on the table. Aramis Naglic‘s team will seek an opportunity when they face Belgium again, but it would be surprising if they pose any threat in any way. Just reaching this stage of qualifications is a kind of success for Slovakia and a good foundation for the future.
No surprises were seen in Group E, where France and Bosnia and Herzegovina justified their roles as favorites against Croatia and Cyprus. Considering how individually superior “Les Bleus” are to everyone else, it’s clear from the beginning that the matchups between the two teams from the former Yugoslavia region will determine the third qualifier for EuroBasket. The other qualifier is Cyprus, as one of the four hosts of the final tournament. Of course, there’s a possibility that France might stumble in Tuzla on Monday or in the away game against Croatia, which wouldn’t be too painful for them, but for the others, it could make a significant difference in whether they will be part of the EuroBasket in 18 months or not.
Favorites lived up to expectations in Group G as well. In his debut as Greece head coach, Vassilis Spanoulis led his team to victory against the Czech Republic. In the second game, Great Britain defeated the Netherlands by 98:94. The crucial moments in this group will likely unfold in the last two rounds when the British first visit the “land of tulips,” and if unsuccessful, they might have a chance to make amends at home against the Czech Republic in the last round, which could secure their passage to EuroBasket at that point.