- Bayern (A)
- Alba Berlin (H)
-With two wins, Panathinaikos would not only enter the top 4 but would also secure the second spot.
–With just one win, Panathinaikos would enter the top 4 if Olympiacos loses at least one game.
–There is a scenario in which Panathinaikos could advance to the top 4 with one loss if Olympiacos wins both games, but then Monaco would have to lose at least one game because in the tiebreaker between Olympiacos, Panathinaikos and Monaco, Monaco would finish fifth.
Monaco (2-0 against Barcelona, 1-1 with better head-to-head against Olympiacos, 1-1 with weaker head-to-head against Fenerbahce, 0-2 against Panathinaikos)
- Zalgiris (H)
- Bayern (H)
Fenerbahce (1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Monaco, Barcelona and Panathinaikos, 1-0 against Olympiacos)
- Anadolu Efes (H)
- Olympiacos (A)
-With two wins, Fenerbahce is in the top 4 only if Monaco, Barcelona or Panathinaikos lose at least one game. It doesn’t matter which team, as they have a better head-to-head record against all of them.
-Fenerbahce could theoretically enter the top 4 with just one win, but only if it’s against Olympiacos, and if one team from the trio (Monaco, Barcelona, Panathinaikos) loses both games, which is almost impossible.
Maccabi Tel Aviv (1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Virtus, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Fenerbahce, 0-2 against Olympiacos)
- Barcelona (A)
- Milano (H)
-Maccabi Tel Aviv enters the top 6 only with two wins and two losses from Olympiacos or Fenerbahce.
Virtus (1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Anadolu Efes, 1-0 against Baskonia)
- Milano (A)
- Baskonia (H)
Anadolu Efes (1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Virtus and Baskonia, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Partizan, Valencia, Milano and Zalgiris)
- Fenerbahce (A)
- Crvena zvezda (H)
-With two wins, the Istanbul team is safely in the play-in, and if Baskonia doesn’t win both, they would also be ninth.
-If the two-time EuroLeague champion loses one game, and Baskonia doesn’t win any, they need either Partizan or Zalgiris to lose one game in order to remain in 10th place in all other scenarios. The reason lies in the fact that in the tiebreaker involving Partizan, Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes and Baskonia, the team from Istanbul finishes 11th (the tiebreaker explained in the first part of the article).
-If Tomislav Mijatovic’s team loses one game, and Baskonia wins at least one, they need none of the teams below them to catch them (not to win both games) because they have a worse head-to-head record against all of them (Partizan, Zalgiris, Valencia and Milano).
Zalgiris (2-0 against Baskonia and Milano, 1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Anadolu Efes, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Valencia, 0-2 against Partizan)
- Monaco (A)
- Real Madrid (H)
-Only with two wins Zalgiris have a chance.
-In addition, they need two losses from Baskonia and one loss from Anadolu Efes because in that three-team tiebreaker, Zalgiris would come out on top and they would be in the play-in regardless of what everyone else does..
-The second option is that Partizan to lose at least one game + one of the two scenarios mentioned above (one loss from Anadolu Efes or two losses from Baskonia).
-If we have a tiebreaker involving Partizan, Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes and Baskonia, Anadolu Efes and Baskonia would be eliminated from the play-in contention. In this scenario, Partizan would be at 4-2, Zalgiris and Anadolu Efes would both have 3-3, and Baskonia would be at 2-4. The Lithuanian champion would finish ahead of the Turkish club due to a better direct head-to-head record, thanks to a convincing win in Kaunas.
–Other teams cannot spoil the situation for Zalgiris if any of the scenarios mentioned above occur. In a potential tiebreaker involving Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes and Valencia, Zalgiris would still come out on top due to their dominant performance against Anadolu Efes in Kaunas (all teams would have a 2-2 record in the tiebreaker).
-If a five-team tiebreaker occurs (Partizan, Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes, Milano and Baskonia), Partizan and Zalgiris would have a 5-3 record in the tiebraker and would be in the play-in. If instead of Partizan, Valencia were in that tiebreaker, then the Lithuanians would even be ninth.
Partizan (2-0 against Zalgiris, 1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Anadolu Efes, Milano, and Baskonia, 1-0 against Valencia)
- Alba Berlin (A)
- Valencia (H)
-Zeljko Obradovic’s team needs two wins and at least one loss from Anadolu Efes or two losses from Baskonia.
–With one win, the Belgrade black-and-whites need Anadolu Efes to lose both games, while Zalgiris, Milano and Valencia don’t win both.
Milano (1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Valencia and Anadolu Efes, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Partizan and Baskonia, 0-2 against Zalgiris)
- Virtus (H)
- Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)
-If Partizan or Zalgiris win both of their games, theoretically, Milano has no chance for the top 10 because they cannot “close” any tiebreaker involving either Partizan or Zalgiris alongside Baskonia.
–That means Milano needs two wins, Zalgiris and Partizan to not win both of their games, and Anadolu Efes to lose at least one game to advance to the play-in.
-In theory, Milano could advance to the play-in with just one win, but then Anadolu Efes would have to lose both games, the same scenario would have to occur for Zalgiris and Partizan, and additionally, Valencia would not achieve both wins.
Valencia (1-1 with a better head-to-head record against Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes and Baskonia, 1-1 with a weaker head-to-head record against Milano, 0-1 against Partizan)
- Asvel (H)
- Partizan (A)
-Valencia can only advance if they achieve two wins and if Milanо loses at least one game because if the Italian team win both games, there is no common tiebreaker that Valencia can “close” due to their previous debacle at the “Mediolanum Forum” earlier in the season.
-If Baskonia wins one of their remaining two games, Valencia also needs both Anadolu Efes and Zalgiris to lose at least one game each (a potential tiebreaker involving these three teams would place Zalgiris in the 10th position).
-In the scenario where Anadolu Efes wins both games, then Baskonia would have to lose both games, and Zalgiris would have not win both games. In that scenario, Valencia and Baskonia would be the only teams with a record of 16-18, and Valencia would secure the 10th place.
-If Zalgiris were to win both games, and Anadolu Efes loses exactly one, while Baskonia loses both, then Valencia would advance from the 10th place with two wins. In the tiebreaker among these four teams with a record of 16-18, Zalgiris would have a 4-2 record in the tiebreaker and would be ninth, Valencia and Anadolu Efes would be at 3-3, and Baskonia at 2-4. Valencia would be ahead of Anadolu Efes due to a better direct head-to-head record (as explained earlier in the text using the example of Partizan, Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes and Baskonia).