New Zealand vs Slovenia: Analysis and Prediction – New Zealand will play against Slovenia in the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament Round 3.
New Zealand vs Slovenia Odds
New Zealand Team News
New Zealand pulled off one of the biggest surprises so far in the Olympic qualifiers on Wednesday by defeating Croatia 90:86. This result means that any single-digit loss against Slovenia will be enough for them to qualify for the semifinals of the tournament in Greece.
Pero Cameron’s team knocked down 10 three-pointers in the first half against Croatia, gaining the necessary confidence that played a crucial role in the fourth quarter. Corey Webster and Shea Ili, as expected, were the standout individuals for New Zealand, while Yanni Wetzell also made significant contributions on the court. His EuroLeague experience with Alba Berlin was evident, as New Zealand had a +19 point differential during the time he was on the floor, which speaks volumes. On the other hand, Reuben Te Rangi had a weak game, as did Finn Delany, indicating that the Tall Blacks have room for improvement.
Despite being able to advance to the semifinals even if they lose by a single-digit margin, New Zealand is unlikely to slow down the pace. They thrive in a high-tempo, transition-heavy style of basketball and will continue to play that way.
Slovenia Team News
Slovenia had a nightmarish opening game against Croatia, losing 108:92. At one point, they were down by 29 points, but a late push in the fourth quarter slightly improved their situation, making their task on Thursday somewhat easier than if the deficit had remained over 20.
Conceding 108 points to any team makes it clear that nothing worked defensively. Luka Doncic made his usual contributions on the offensive end, but when left in mismatches under the basket, Croatia exploited those opportunities. Slovenia shot terribly from three-point range, at one point going 0-for-15, reflecting a severe lack of confidence. Josh Nebo replaced Mike Tobey as the naturalized player. The new Milano big man had a few good moments but will need to perform even better against New Zealand. On Tuesday, Slovenia received no significant contributions from their bench players, making it essential for head coach Aleksander Sekulic to find someone outside the starting five who can step up.
For Slovenia, the key in this game will be to show much more intensity and desire on defense. New Zealand loves to shoot a lot of threes, and Doncic and his teammates must focus on contesting those long-distance attempts. If the opponent gets into their rhythm, it will be difficult for Slovenia to secure a double-digit win.
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New Zealand vs Slovenia H2H
This will be the first official meeting between New Zealand and Slovenia.
Absences and Injuries
New Zealand has all their players available for this tournament. Slovenia is without Jaka Blazic.
New Zealand vs Slovenia Prediction
There’s no doubt that Slovenia boasts significant talent with Doncic and Nebo, but the rest of the team performs well only when Doncic is at his peak. It seems the Dallas Mavericks superstar is running on reserves after a grueling and demanding NBA season. New Zealand played well against Croatia and has no reason not to replicate that performance against Slovenia. Perhaps Doncic and his teammates will manage to win by a double-digit margin and qualify for the semifinals, but we don’t believe the margin will exceed 16 points.
Tip-off Time: Thursday, 04.07.2024, 16:30 CET
Prediction: New Zealand +16.5
Odds: 1.73
Sportsbook: 22Bet
*Odds are active at the time the article is published
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