Nikola Topic is the new Serbian basketball ‘prodigy,’ and the hype is entirely justified. The statistics he is achieving are on par with some of the best guards from this region, ever.
Although the subtitle reads “prodigy,” watching him play makes it hard to believe he is a fragile guard of only 18 years. Calmness, a cool expression on his face, composure, perceptiveness, perfect timing for attacks, and efficiency – these are all attributes that should characterize a seasoned player in his 30s with a significant number of games under his belt. This describes Nikola Topic, a player from Crvena Zvezda, currently on loan to Mega. It’s an ideal environment for any young player in the region.
Everyone is familiar with Mega’s modus operandi, but Topic could truly have that “something special”
In recent years, Mega has gained recognition as a serious club, especially after becoming record-holders for the number of players drafted into the NBA. More media attention has turned towards the club’s internal workings.
Everyone wanted to know the reason for such a ‘boom’ in regional basketball. Players, coaches, and club staff have spoken about the importance of focusing solely on the ABA League. During the week, the entire focus can be on training and individual work with players, rather than spending a significant amount of time traveling for other leagues, which would consequently shift the emphasis of training more towards recovery and less on tactics and the actual game during practice, as well as less on improving individual weaknesses.
Such a system turns talents into well-rounded basketball players, and with perfect conditions and people surrounding them on a daily basis, it’s inevitable that these players thrive. This is precisely what Mega is looking for. Without listing names that are well-known to everyone and have headed to the NBA from the Belgrade club in recent years, let’s take examples of Marko Simonovic and Filip Petrusev, the current and former players of Crvena Zvezda.
After an MVP season with Mega, Petrusev was selected in the NBA draft but opted for a season with the then-European champions Anadolu Efes, where the hierarchy was already established, and he was more of an observer under Ergin Ataman. He regained confidence last season with Crvena Zvezda, playing exceptionally well, which opened the doors to the NBA once again, where he is still finding his footing, at least in the initial stages.
Talent is unquestionable, just like with Simonovic, who spent the season after Mega with the Chicago Bulls. There, he simply didn’t get a chance, so he returned to Crvena Zvezda, where he currently doesn’t have significant playing time. The point is that these are all system players who need a perfectly supportive environment to function at their best, which may come with time.
Nikola Topic isn’t a system player, he is the system itself
In the words of James Harden from a few days ago: “I’m not a system player, I am the system.” This description fits Nikola Topic perfectly. What’s impressive about him is how he perfectly controls the pace of the game, knowing when to slow down the rhythm and when to run past the opponent. When we add his lucidity and unpredictability, we get a complete player. He doesn’t depend on others, he is the engine that drives the other four players around him to follow, and opposing defenses are always on alert because he carefully dissects any lapse in attention and punishes it.
Luka Bozic – Finally found a competitor
The dominance of Zadar’s player, Luka Bozic, in the last two seasons is one of the most remarkable in the history of the ABA League. Dejan Milojevic held the record for the highest Player Index Rating (PIR) in a season (30.2) since the 2004/05 season, but Bozic completely eclipsed it with a performance of 32.56 last season.
In the meantime, he broke several records. He became the first player in the history of the ABA League to score at least 500 points, grab 200 rebounds, and make 100 assists in a single season. These are numbers typically seen in the NBA, making it an extraordinary feat to achieve throughout a season in the ABA League. It’s incredible that a player in his prime, the MVP of the Croatian champions and the MVP of the regional competition, is not a member of the national team going through its worst period in history.
Nevertheless, his closest competitor last season was the star of Real Madrid this season and the leader of Argentina – Facundo Campazzo (21.8 PIR).
If one Campazzo couldn’t come close to Bozic…
The realistic state of affairs should be such that if a player like Campazzo, who, given various circumstances, did what was necessary in the ABA League, approached each game with 100% effort on both ends of the court, and was still far from Bozic, then no one can truly be mentioned in the same sentence as the ‘Bjelovar cyborg.’
Until this season. Enter Nikola Topic. First, he strung together five games with 20 or more points, including the ABA Super Cup and ABA League, from Partizan to Partizan. Then, in a direct duel with Luka Bozic, he had the highest PIR of the season at that time – 41. Bozic canceled it out in the next round with a PIR of 47. He scored 27 points with six rebounds, 10 assists, two steals, and several clutch plays that decided the winner (6-9 from the field, 3-4 from three-point range).
After three consecutive MVP awards, Bozic was overshadowed by the kid who is keeping the league’s youngest team in the playoff zone with a 4-3 record. All three losses were by a single possession. Inexperience may have cost them even the top spot. He is still far from the top in Player Index Rating because Luka Bozic is at 22.2 this season, well ahead of the competition. But if Nikola Topic, at his age, can lead the team to a good result and at the same time compete with a player who is inscribed in the historical books of the ABA League, then his future should indeed be bright.
Once Jokic, now Topic
Nikola Jokic had a PIR of 21.96 in his MVP season with Mega, scoring 15.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Currently, Topic averages 20.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.0 steal per game with a PIR of 14.1. He shoots fantastically – 58 percent from the field, 83 percent from free throws, and 33 percent from three-point range. What stands out is his impressive 70 percent shooting for two-pointers, and his game is based on finishing around the rim with a lot of contact (he makes exactly six such shots per game).
After six rounds, he is the second scorer, the first assist provider (ahead of Milos Teodosic), first in the number of made two-pointers with the best percentage. He is third in the number of made free throws with the second-best percentage, third in the number of minutes played, and second in double-double performances in the league.
We have a new king of the pick game
Regarding this impressive statistic where he makes six two-pointers with a 70 percent success rate, for comparison, Luka Bozic, who is much more corpulent, taller, stronger, and more experienced, makes 4.8 such shots per game with a fantastic 60 percent, which is nowhere near Topic. Everything at Mega is subordinated to Topic, which propelled him to the tenth position on the next draft list, according to ESPN’s journalist Jonathan Givony, and Jonathan Wasserman predicts ninth. A few months ago, Nikola Topic was predicted to be low in the second round of the NBA draft.
With the collaboration of the most famous statistician in our region, Miroslav Nadj, we came across some data that simply leaves you speechless. One of the most fascinating facts is that when Nikola Topic leads the pick, points are scored in 61 percent of cases. For comparison – former NBA guard Shabazz Napier (45%), then Colbey Ross (39%), and Klemen Prepelic (33%).
Incredible ease of understanding the geometry of the game at this age is astonishing – after the pick by Topic, in the vast majority of cases, you get either points from penetration/shooting or a trip to the free-throw line. Or, of course, an assist. Such ease of breaking down defenses is reminiscent of another grandmaster from this region, Luka Doncic, who is unstoppable in the pick game.
When we dive into the world of statistics, we discover how dominant he really is at this age
After seven rounds, he is the second scorer in the ABA League with 20.1 points per game, behind Bozic with 25. But with a better shooting percentage from the field (Topic 58.3 percent, Bozic 52 percent).
In the history of the ABA League, a player has played a season with 20+ points per game only 16 times. Only one player has achieved that aged 20 years or younger. Ante Zizic had exactly 20 points per game in the 16/17 season, he entered the season with 19, and by the time he left the ABA League, he turned 20. Topic turned 18 a few months ago.
Nikola Topic has the second-highest number of possessions per game in the entire league (26.1), which he uses to create for himself or others. He has the most possessions, followed by Prepelic with 27.7, and Bozic is third with 25.6. It is worth mentioning that Topic creates the most points per possession (1.41 per possession), followed by Bozic with 1.35 and Prepelic with 1.27.
In the entire league, only James Nunnally creates more points per possession (1.55), but from only 11 such attacks per game.
Another comparison of Topic, Bozic, and Prepelic
Prepelic has the most assists per game (10.7), Topic has 8.0, and Bozic has 4.4. Prepelic’s assists lead to 1.6 points per assist, while Topic’s lead to 2.1 points per assist, and Bozic’s lead to 2.3. However, considering that Bozic’s assists are mostly from the low post as kick-out passes for outside shots, it is logical that more points are scored because Bozic gathers opposing defenses and creates many open situations. Topic does this through the pick or penetration.