Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid: Analysis and Prediction – Panathinaikos and Real Madrid will play EuroLeague Finals game in Berlin.
Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid Odds
Panathinaikos Team News
Panathinaikos finished second in the regular season. Then, in the playoffs, they defeated Maccabi Tel Aviv after five games (3-2), and in the EuroLeague semifinals, they outplayed Fenerbahce with a score of 73:57, marking their first finals appearance since 2011. Incidentally, that was also the last time they won the EuroLeague.
Among all the players from the Athens team, Mathias Lessort was by far the best in the semifinals. He once again demonstrated his dominance in the paint by achieving a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds. He is the key player in Panathinaikos’ frontcourt. Kendrick Nunn played a solid game with 14 points, each coming at crucial moments, while Jerian Grant stepped up when Kostas Sloukas and Nunn were not the primary offensive options. It’s worth noting that Sloukas didn’t spend much time on the court during the semifinals, but a similar scenario is not expected in the finals. Head coach Ergin Ataman managed to find effective players at every moment during the semifinals. Ioannis Papapetrou was a significant factor both offensively and defensively, and Panagiotis Kalaitzakis also played an important role. Panathinaikos plays a two-dimensional style of basketball and can adapt to any opponent. Besides their inside game, with threats like Konstantinos Mitoglou, they have many options for three-point shooting, where Marius Grigonis is the most dangerous and can make a difference in crucial moments. It should be noted that Aleksander Balcerowski and Luca Vildoza did not play in the semifinals. Vildoza has a chance to become only the sixth Argentine to win the EuroLeague, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Ergin Ataman decides to give him a chance to potentially contribute to his team with his three-point shooting.
Defensively, Panathinaikos must be at their best for all 40 minutes if they want to compete with Real Madrid. This was not the case against Fenerbahce, where they showed a certain drop in performance, but now they cannot afford to allow the same scenario. Additionally, it is essential that Mathias Lessort avoids early foul trouble, and Kendrick Nunn and Kostas Sloukas are expected to carry the main offensive burden.
Real Madrid Team News
Real Madrid set a EuroLeague record for the most wins in the regular season. They were the only team to sweep their opponent in the quarterfinals (3-0 against Baskonia). As the reigning EuroLeague champions, they have the chance to win back-to-back titles for the first time since 1968. In the semifinals, they showcased their quality by defeating Olympiacos.
Although they looked quite poor a month before the Final Four, Real Madrid found their form when it mattered most. Dzanan Musa and Mario Hezonja delivered impressive performances against Olympiacos in the semifinals. They hit their first five three-point shots, giving their team an 18-point lead in the opening quarter of the semifinals. Walter Tavares is a player who provides a significant advantage in the paint on both ends of the court, and alongside him, Vincent Poirier, who acts as a fantastic complement, makes them the most powerful frontcourt duo in Europe. Facundo Campazzo wasn’t a high scorer, but with nine assists, he set up his teammates effectively and did a fantastic job on defense. The veteran quartet of Fabien Causeur, Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Llull activated their recognizable “mode” for the Final Four, each making crucial contributions in the semifinals. They built rebounds and shot three-pointers phenomenally as a team, particularly in the early part of the game when they were 8/11 at one point. Among those not yet mentioned, Guerschon Yabusele is a particularly significant factor for this team. The Frenchman received additional minutes and responsibility due to Gabriel Deck’s injury, which Yabusele inadvertently caused, motivating him to compensate for his teammate’s absence and rectify his mistake.
Real Madrid will be in a position to defend their title only if they impose their rhythm and fully exploit their quality. They will especially attack through the paint when Mathias Lessort is not on the court, as unlike Real Madrid, Panathinaikos does not have an adequate replacement at the center position. Additionally, the outcome of this game will largely depend on their three-point shooting percentage, as it is unrealistic to expect them to replicate the barrage they unleashed against Olympiacos.
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Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid H2H
Panathinaikos and Real Madrid played two games earlier this season, with each team winning once. Interestingly, in both encounters, the away teams were victorious. Panathinaikos and Real Madrid have never met before in a EuroLeague final. In their last ten EuroLeague matchups, Real Madrid has won eight times. However, this statistic should be taken with caution. In the three seasons prior to Ergin Ataman’s arrival and the addition of 12 new players, Panathinaikos operated with a much smaller budget and had less talented players. Therefore, the 8-2 record in favor of Real Madrid doesn’t hold much significance for either team in this final.
Absences and Injuries
Juancho Hernangomez is questionable for Panathinaikos after head coach Ergin Ataman stated following the semifinal game that he played injured against Fenerbahce. Aleksander Balcerowski, who was hospitalized with stomach issues a few days before the EuroLeague Final Four, is available and has no problems playing in the final, although he did not enter the game in the semifinals. Gabriel Deck is injured and will not be available for Real Madrid, as his season ended after a knee injury caused by Guerschon Yabusele during an Liga Endesa game, preventing him from helping his team.
Panathinaikos vs Real Madrid Prediction
It’s needless to emphasize the amount of pressure present on both sides when it comes to the EuroLeague final. Both Real Madrid and Panathinaikos have justified everything they built during the regular season. Real Madrid finished first, Panathinaikos second, and on their way to the final, they successfully overcame all their obstacles. It’s a fact that both teams are offensive powerhouses, but it’s unrealistic to expect the team from the Spanish capital to shoot at extremely high percentages like they did against Olympiacos. Similarly, we don’t expect a high-scoring game similar to those they played in the regular season. Considering that Real Madrid has been part of the last two finals and faced excellent teams, both games were played at an extremely slow pace. Two years ago, against Anadolu Efes, Real Madrid lost with a score of 58:57. Last season, the final score against Olympiacos was 79:78 in favor of Real Madrid, so we anticipate a similar outcome this time.
Tip-off Time: Sunday, 26.05.2024, 20:00 CET
Prediction: Under 159.5 points
Odds: 2.05
Sportsbook: 22Bet
*Odds are active at the time the article is published
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