Poland vs Estonia: Analysis and Prediction – This will be the second round Olympic prequalification game between Poland and Estonia.
Poland vs Estonia Odds
Poland vs Estonia (1/2): 1.23 / 3.85
Asian Handicap (-8.5 / +8.5): 1.83 / 1.83
Total Over/Under (154.5): 1.83 / 1.83
Odds via Bet365 Sportsbook
Poland Team News
Poland were perfect in the group stage. They beat Hungary (83-81), Bosnia and Herzegovina (85-76), and Portugal (78-65). Mateusz Ponitka and his teammates are playing fast (pace factor 74) but they could score more efficiently.
The main star of the squad is mentioned Mateusz Ponitka. While he is having bad fg%, without A.J. Slaughter in the squad, Mateusz took even more ballhandling responsibilities. There is also no Aleksander Dziewa and Jeremy Sochan. Michal Sokolowski and Aleksander Balcerowski are providing great support for Mateusz, but Poland show weakness when Ponitka is on the bench. Hungary had a +18 points difference in eight minutes in which Ponitka rested.
The game is played in Gliwice, so Poland will have a homecourt advantage. Rotation should be even shorter so huge oscillations like in the game against Hungary shouldn’t happen again.
Estonia Team News
Estonia went through the group phase with two wins and one defeat. First, they lost to the Czech Republic 74-77. After that, they won easily against North Macedonia. They needed a win in the last game of the group stage against Israel. And they did in a nail-bitter of game, 67-65.
Them being in the second phase of prequalification is already an accomplishment. Estonia is without half of the last year’s Eurobasket. No Maik Kotsar, Kerr Kriisa, Martin Dorbek, Siim Sander-Vene, Rano Nurger, Kristjan Kitsing, and Janari Joesar.
They show good defense against Israel, but this game will be much different as they will play as visitors. There are issues with offense and depth. If Kullamae is not hitting his shots, the whole team plays much worse. They shot just 20% from three against Israel.
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Poland vs Estonia H2H
They played four times, and Poland won three games. The most recent matchups were in FIBA World Cup qualifiers when they split.
Absences and Injuries
Poland is without Dziewa, Slaughter, and Sochan. Estonia is without Kotsar, Kitsting, Kriisa, Nurger, Sander-Vene, Joesar, and Dorbek.
Poland vs Estonia Prediction
While Estonia won against favored Israel, Poland looks like a deeper squad. Estonia had to travel after a tough game against Israel, which is also a disadvantage. Poland rotation should get thinner, so more minutes to Ponitka and Balcerowski could happen. Both of them are great defenders and they should cause trouble for the struggling Estonia offense. Poland managed to beat Bosnia by 9 points, a team that is stronger than Estonia.
Tip-off Time: Friday 18.08.2023, 17:30 CET
Prediction: Poland -8.5
Odds: 1.83
Sportsbook: Bet365