Serbia vs Italy: Analysis and Prediction – In the opening match of the newly formed Group I, Serbia and Italy will face each other.
Serbia vs Italy Odds
Serbia vs Italy (1/2): 1.36 / 3.14
Asian Handicap (-6.5 / +6.5): 1.85 / 1.93
Total Over/Under (169.5): 1.85 / 1.89
*Odds are active at the time the article is published
Serbia Team News
Serbia has fully justified their role as the favorite in their group and easily triumphed in all three matches, displaying an engaging style of play. China, Puerto Rico, and South Sudan weren’t formidable opponents for the Serbian team.
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Milutinov are undoubtedly the key players of this team. The strong performances from the preparation period have carried over for the young Nikola Jovic at the FIBA World Cup. He has solidified his position in the starting lineup and has averaged 17 points per game in the previous three matches, making him the second-highest scorer on the team, right behind Bogdanovic who has 18 points per game. Serbia has consistently started the three matches strong, building a substantial lead that they have managed to maintain until the end of each game.
In the match against Italy, there are several key points to consider. How Milutinov will be utilized is important. Italy plays an unconventional style of basketball where everyone shoots threes and runs a lot. It remains to be seen how Milutinov adapts to this style. Another crucial aspect is how well Stefan Jovic and Aleksa Avramovic can pressure Italy ball handlers and disrupt their offensive actions. If these two are aggressive to the extent of their abilities, it could be highly significant for Serbia success.
Italy Team News
Italy has won 12 out of the last 13 matches they’ve played. They suffered that defeat in the second round of this FIBA World Cup, when they were defeated by the Dominican Republic.
Simone Fontecchio has lived up to the expectations and is the key player for Italy at the FIBA World Cup. Someone who perhaps stands out more than anticipated is Marco Spissu, who is the team’s third-leading scorer with 11.7 points and the top assist maker with 6.7 successful assists per game. It’s evident that Italy’s three-point shooting hasn’t been performing as expected. They are only making 28.7% of their three-point attempts, ranking 29th among all teams in the tournament, and the worst among those that advanced to the second round.
Italy has defeated the Serbia in their last two crucial matches. First, they won against Serbia in Belgrade during the Olympic qualification tournament for Tokyo, and then, after a significant comeback, they triumphed in the European Championship’s round of 16 last year. Without a doubt, Italy will continue to play their style, heavily relying on three-point shots, as it has become their trademark. In this tournament, only Latvia and Canada attempt more three-pointers than Italy.
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Serbia vs Italy H2H
These two teams have played a significant number of matches against each other. Serbia has won 12, while Italy has won only five of their encounters. However, as previously mentioned, Italy has emerged victorious in their last two official matches. Italy also won a preparatory match less than a month ago in Athens.
Absences and Injuries
Serbia is competing in this championship without Nikola Jokic, Vasilije Micic, and Vladimir Lucic, who withdrew from participation. We believe that Filip Petrusev and Aleksa Avramovic will be ready despite minor injuries they have experienced. Nico Mannion is the most notable absence for the Italian team.
Serbia vs Italy Prediction
In the last two matchups between these teams, Serbia managed to build a significant lead early on, which Italy was able to overcome and surpass. Unlike those two games, Serbia now has Stefan Jovic in the lineup, who is skilled at dictating the game tempo and can sense the kind of offense needed to break the opponents momentum. Additionally, Bogdanovic did not play in the last two significant losses against Italy, and he’s someone who takes on responsibility in the clutch moments. That’s precisely what Serbia lacked during the round of 16 match at the European Championship. Serbia is undoubtedly the stronger team, the question remains whether they can learn from their past defeats against this opponent.
We believe they can, and that’s why we suggest Serbia to win by more than five points.
Tip-off Time: Friday, 01.09.2023, 10:00 CET
Prediction: Serbia -5.5
Odds: 1.73
Sportsbook: 22Bet
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