Italy vs USA: Analysis and Prediction – Italy and USA will play a quarterfinal game at the FIBA World Cup. Match will be played in Manila.
Italy vs USA Odds
Italy vs USA (1/2): 11.50 / 1.03
Asian Handicap (+15.5 / -15.5): 1.94 / 1.84
Total Over/Under (176.5): 1.91 / 1.89
*Odds are active at the time the article is published
Italy Team News
Italy was in a very difficult situation after the first round, where they suffered a defeat against the Dominican Republic. However, with two wins against Serbia and Puerto Rico, they secured a spot among the top eight teams at this FIBA World Cup.
Simone Fontecchio has fully justified his role as the team’s leader, he is the top scorer and the second-best rebounder for his team. Alongside him, the duo of Stefano Tonut and Marco Spissu stands out in the guard positions, with both averaging over 11 points per game. What may concern Italian fans is their three-point shooting, which has been quite poor so far in the tournament. Their three-point shooting percentage is just slightly above 31% in the tournament’s previous stages. Italians are too good of shooters to remain at this percentage.
For their outstanding performances in the second phase, Italy has been rewarded with a matchup against the top favorite of the tournament, the USA team. Realistically speaking, the Italia can only secure a win through an exceptional shooting performance. As we’ve seen, the Americans have struggled in rebounding, but Italy plays with lineups where all five players can shoot from outside, often adopting a five-out formation. It presents a very tough challenge for the team led by Gianmarco Pozzecco.
USA Team News
The team led by Steve Kerr easily handled their business in the first round, securing three straightforward wins. However, in the second round, they encountered some issues, notably struggling against Montenegro. In their matchup against Lithuania, there were moments where they looked like amateurs. They improved their defense in the second half, but it wasn’t enough to mount a comeback.
The way the Americans started the game against Lithuania is an example of how not to approach it, especially when it comes to defense. They allowed the Lithuanians to get hot and build a substantial lead, which they managed to maintain. Anthony Edwards showed who the main player of this team is, he almost carried his team to a comeback, but he needed help from his teammates. Perhaps the most significant problem for the USA team in the past two matches was rebounding. Montenegro outrebounded them by 18, and Lithuania by 16, highlighting a major issue for this USA team.
We believe that at least the rebounding aspect of the game won’t be a problem for the USA, as the Italians don’t have a dominant player in the paint like Montenegro and Lithuania did. The USA team can defend all of Italy players one-on-one. We expect the USA team to enter the next match with maximum focus and a strong desire to win. One potential issue for them could be the lack of a more experienced player if the game comes down to a close finish.
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Italy vs USA H2H
These two teams have only played two matches against each other so far, and on both occasions, the Americans emerged wins.
Absences and Injuries
Nico Mannion is indeed one of the notable names missing from Italy lineup at this FIBA World Championship. The USA team is competing with a roster that was determined several months ago.
Italy vs USA Prediction
Italians were hoping for an easier opponent after securing first place in their group, but they’ll have to face the Americans. In most basketball aspects, the USA team appears to be significantly stronger than Italy. However, Italy possesses the important qualities of teamwork, unity, and a charismatic coach, which are crucial in international basketball. Nevertheless, it’s believed that the USA will enter this match highly motivated and play aggressively from the start, as there’s no room for error now. If their approach is right, and it’s expected to be, the Americans should achieve an easy victory.
Considering all these factors, it’s expected that the USA will secure a victory by no less than a 15-point margin.
Tip-off Time: Tuesday 05.09.2023, 14:40 CET
Prediction: USA -14.5
Odds: 1.70
Sportsbook: 22Bet